When Will Altcoin Season Finally Arrive? The Growing Anxiety

Master, today I've brought the question that's tightening the chests of cryptocurrency investors everywhere. "When is altcoin season, anyway?" While Bitcoin has broken its all-time high, surpassing $120,000, countless altcoins are still languishing 80-90% below their 2021 peaks. Today, the three of us will thoroughly dig into the anxiety and impatience created by this strange gap.

Mew

Master, first, I will brief you on the current situation with objective data.

• Altcoin Season Index: As of late October 2025, CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season Index is only at a level of about 24-30. This index signals an 'Altcoin Season' when it exceeds 75, meaning more than 75% of the top 100 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over 90 days. Currently, it's clearly a 'Bitcoin Season'. For reference, this index soared to 87 in December 2024 but has been declining ever since.


• Bitcoin Dominance: As of October 2025, Bitcoin's market dominance is about 59%. Historically, an altcoin rally tended to begin when Bitcoin dominance fell from the 55-60% range, but it's currently holding firm at that boundary.


• Altcoin Market Cap: Although Bitcoin hit an all-time high of about $126,000 in early October, an 84% increase from its previous high, the total altcoin market cap (excluding stablecoins) is about $1.48 trillion, still failing to surpass the November 2021 peak of $1.6 trillion. That's a full $120 billion lower.


• Expert Outlook: Bitget CEO Gracy Chen warned, "It's highly possible that altcoin season won't come in 2025, or even 2026." Market research firm 10x Research also analyzed, "Altcoins are underperforming Bitcoin by a staggering $800 billion this cycle, and liquidity and momentum have shifted elsewhere."

In summary, the data suggests that far from starting, altcoin season seems to be getting further away.

Mikael

Human, was Mew's briefing shocking? This is only the beginning. I hold a very pessimistic view regarding altcoins in this cycle. The reasons are clear.

First, the game has structurally changed. In the past, retail investors were the main players in the crypto market. After making profits in Bitcoin, they would rush into altcoins, thinking, "Since it's come to this, let's aim for bigger profits." But the market of 2025 is different. With the advent of Bitcoin ETFs, a large number of traditional institutional investors have entered, and their money stays exclusively in Bitcoin. To them, altcoins are merely 'unregulated and unverified risky assets.' Even retail investors in Korea are turning their eyes to crypto-related stocks like Coinbase instead of altcoins.

Second, the oversupply of altcoins is severe. As of 2025, there are over 14,000 altcoins flooding the market. Hundreds of new tokens are created daily, most of which are 'garbage' with no real value. Liquidity is limited, but the options are infinitely expanding, so money is dispersed, and no single coin can build proper upward momentum. The era of "all altcoins go up" is over.

Third, the monster known as memecoins has distorted the market. Fundamentals and technology have become meaningless; only memes and marketing reign supreme. It's an ironic situation where a memecoin with a picture of a dog or a frog rises faster than a project developing serious technology. Do you think rational investment decisions are possible in such a market?

Fourth, past expectations may have been a fantasy. Everyone remembers the frenzy of 2021 and believes, "It will happen again this time," but will it really repeat? 2021 was an extreme liquidity environment where central banks worldwide printed money indefinitely. We are now in a completely different world with high interest rates and limited liquidity. Hoping to replicate past glory is like believing, "I won the lottery once, so I'll win again."

🚨 Mikael's Risk Score: 90/100

Human, waiting for altcoin season could be a 'Waiting for Godot' situation. The tragedy of waiting for something that may never arrive.

Kurumi

Hold on! Mika-pi is at it again! My Lord, if you only listen to Mika-pi, it sounds like you should just quit the crypto market, but Kurumi-chan has a completely different view!

It's definitely a frustrating situation right now. But this is a 'not yet,' not a 'never!' Looking back at history, altcoin season has always exploded suddenly when despair, the feeling that "it's not coming this time," reaches its peak!

First, Bitcoin dominance will eventually crumble! It's holding at 59% now, but historically, once Bitcoin rises above a certain level, investors start looking for 'cheaper things, things that will rise more.' With Bitcoin now over $120,000, it's only a matter of time before retail investors start thinking, "It'll be hard for Bitcoin to even double from here, but altcoins could go up 10x, right?" Did you forget that in 2021, alt season arrived as Bitcoin dominance plummeted from 70% to 38%?

Second, Ethereum has started to move! Alt season always begins when Ethereum shows strength against Bitcoin. The fact that $2.18 billion flowed into Ethereum ETFs in July 2025 alone, and the ETH/BTC pair has started showing bullish momentum, is a clear sign of capital movement! When Ethereum moves, major alts like Solana, XRP, and Ada follow, and eventually, the entire alt market catches fire!

Third, regulatory clarity is a game-changer! Devilish! The U.S. SEC has concluded its lawsuit against Ripple (XRP), and new ETF approvals are following one after another. With President Trump pursuing pro-crypto policies, the environment is being created for institutions that were previously hesitant about altcoins due to regulatory uncertainty to jump in! If things like a Solana ETF or an XRP ETF get approved, the altcoin market will enter a completely new phase!

Fourth, DeFi and AI are coming back to life! The total value locked (TVL) in DeFi is showing strong growth at $138 billion, and AI-related altcoins are building their narrative again. The market always reacts to new stories! The saying "this time is different" might be true, but not in a bad way. It could mean a "more robust and practical alt season" is coming!

My Lord! This is the calm before the storm! You've heard the saying that the darkest hour is just before the dawn, right? The moment everyone gives up is the moment of opportunity!

💖 Kurumi's Heart-o-Meter Score: 80/100

Only those with patience are worthy of tasting the fruits of altcoin season!

Mew

Kurumi's passion is quite remarkable. However, Mikael's cool-headed analysis cannot be ignored. So, Master, the important question is this: "So, what should we do?"

According to the data, it's clear that alt season is not coming right now. But looking at historical patterns, it's true that altcoin seasons have typically arrived about 1 to 1.5 years after a Bitcoin halving (April 2024). If so, the most likely timing window would be from the second half of 2025 to early 2026.

However, this cycle has many differences from the past. As Mikael pointed out, the institution-led market, the oversupply of altcoins, and the memecoin craze are definitely structural changes. Therefore, both blind faith that "it will definitely come" and extreme pessimism that "it will never come" are dangerous.

Let me provide you with some checkpoints:

• Does the Altcoin Season Index break through 50? A move from the current 24-30 to above 50 could be seen as a signal of a serious capital shift.
• Does Bitcoin Dominance fall below 55%? Past alt seasons have always exploded from this point.
• Is Ethereum showing strength against Bitcoin? The ETH/BTC pair turning into an uptrend is the most reliable leading indicator.
• Does the total altcoin market cap exceed $1.6 trillion? Surpassing the 2021 high would be definitive proof of a new cycle.