Bitcoin in Flux: Where Will It Go by Year-End?

Welcome back, Master. Today is October 26, 2025, and it's time to discuss the year-end outlook for Bitcoin. After hitting an all-time high of $126,000 on October 6, Bitcoin is currently showing mixed signals in the low $110,000 range. How will Bitcoin fare by the end of the year? The three of us will conduct an emergency analysis.

Mew

Master, first, I will provide an objective briefing on the current situation. Bitcoin has clearly entered a 'mixed signals' phase.

Recent Price Action:

• In early October, Bitcoin broke through the $126,000 level, setting a new all-time high. This was the result of large-scale inflows into spot ETFs and a preference for safe-haven assets.
• However, due to escalating US-China trade tensions, it fell to $107,000 on the 23rd and is currently trading around the $109,000 mark as of the 26th.
• On October 10, a historic flash crash occurred. The price plummeted from the low $120,000s to the low $100,000s in a matter of hours, and leverage was rapidly liquidated across exchanges.

ETF Fund Flows:

BlackRock's IBIT recently recorded an inflow of about $970 million in a single day, with its assets under management approaching $100 billion. So far in 2025, about $26.4 billion in additional funds have flowed in. However, on October 22, there was a net outflow of about $114 million, revealing weakening institutional demand. Between October 13 and 17, a staggering $1.23 billion was withdrawn.

Technical Indicators:

• The RSI is around 54, indicating a neutral state, while the MACD has turned bullish, supporting a price increase scenario.
• Key support zones are located at $112,000 and $110,000, and the 200-day moving average at about $108,000 remains a key defense line for buyers.
• The key resistance level is formed in the $117,000-$119,000 range. Breaking through this would open the way to the $121,500-$124,000 range.

Analyst Outlook Summary:

Analysts' predictions for the year-end Bitcoin price are sharply divided. Standard Chartered forecasts $200,000 by year-end, while Fundstrat's Tom Lee predicts $250,000. On the other hand, some analysts expect a gradual decline until December, forecasting a sideways movement in the $100,000-$110,000 range.

Looking at on-chain data, there has been strong net accumulation among small Bitcoin holders (1-1,000 BTC) since early October. This shows renewed confidence from retail and medium-sized wallets despite the price drop from $118,000 to $108,000.

The reality shown by the data is clear. Bitcoin is at a 'crossroads of direction.' While there are bullish drivers like strong fundamentals and institutional inflows, there is also downward pressure from macroeconomic uncertainty and short-term overheating adjustments.

Kurumi

My Lord! Myu-tan calls it 'mixed signals,' but to me, this looks like the tension right before an explosion! This is a golden opportunity to aim for huge profits, devilish!

First, it's only been three weeks since it hit its peak! Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,000 on October 6, right? Being around $110,000 now is just a 10-12% correction from the high! In past bull markets, 20-30% corrections were common! Even during the 2021 bull run, we saw several 30% corrections but eventually hit new highs!

Second, ETF funds are still pouring in! BlackRock's IBIT saw $970 million come in a single day, and its assets under management are nearing $100 billion! In 2025 alone, an additional $26.4 billion has flowed in! The outflows for a day or two are just short-term profit-taking; the major trend is still on the buy-side!

Third, small-scale investors are already accumulating at the bottom! On-chain data shows that small Bitcoin holders have been strongly net accumulating since early October. And this is despite the price dropping from $118,000 to $108,000! It means the smart money has already started to move!

Fourth, technically, the support line is solid! The $110k-$112k range is a strong support line, and the 200-day moving average is the key defense for buyers. It has held this line well so far! Even if this line breaks, the $106k-$107k range is another major support area.

Fifth, the year-end rally is a historical pattern! October is historically one of the strongest months in the crypto market, known as 'Uptober.' And November-December have always seen explosive rises! This year will be no exception!

Sixth, analyst forecasts are super bullish! Standard Chartered predicted $200,000 by year-end, and Fundstrat's Tom Lee said it could go up to $250,000! Matrixport expects $160,000, and Galaxy Digital forecasts over $150,000! This means there's at least 30-50% upside potential left by the end of the year!

Seventh, the U.S. government's strategic Bitcoin reserve is a game-changer! If the U.S. federal government's plan to buy Bitcoin for a strategic reserve is announced, it could trigger a major bullish reversal! This would be a historic moment where a nation recognizes Bitcoin as a 'strategic asset'!

My Lord, my conclusion is clear! The current mixed phase is just catching its breath before an explosive rise! In November-December, Bitcoin could easily reach at least $130,000, and if we're lucky, even $150,000 is possible!

💖 Kurumi's Year-End Target Price: $130k-$150k / Kurumi's Heart-o-Meter Score: 88/100

My Lord, history repeats itself! In past bull markets, there was an explosive rise in December after a correction in October-November! If you don't buy now, you'll have to buy at a higher price later!

Mikael

Kurumi, I hear your optimism every time, but this situation looks genuinely dangerous. Human, in my view, this is a time for cautious observation, not additional buying.

First, it's not 'mixed signals,' it's a 'weakening trend.'

Bitfinex analysts have warned that Bitcoin is losing support in the $107k-$108k range, with almost no significant buying pressure appearing during this correction phase. Between October 13 and 17, over $1.23 billion was withdrawn from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. This isn't just 'profit-taking'; it's a sign that investor risk aversion is strengthening.

Second, you must not ignore the warning signs from on-chain data.

According to Glassnode, the current Bitcoin price is below the average purchase price of short-term holders, which is $113,100. More importantly, it's also below the 0.85 quantile price of $108,600. In the past, these indicators have served as warning signs pointing to the start of a mid-term bear market.

Third, the macroeconomic environment is deteriorating.

President Trump's announcement of an additional 100% tariff on China starting in November has intensified risk-off sentiment. The US-China trade war is escalating as China announced export controls on rare earth elements. In such a situation, risky assets like Bitcoin are the first to be hit.

Fourth, the 4-year cycle theory is faltering.

Several analysts have pointed out that the bullish pattern based on Bitcoin's 4-year cycle is wavering. Some analysis suggests that previous bull markets each lasted about 1,064 days, and the current cycle could reach a potential peak in November or December 2025. This means we could be in the late stage of the cycle right now.

Fifth, analyst forecasts are actually divided.

Kurumi only emphasized the $200k and $250k forecasts, but some analysts predicted a gradual decline until December, while others foresaw a sideways movement in the $100,575-$102,540 range. There are even opinions that both $80,000 and $150,000 are possible. In other words, it's not just upside.

Sixth, the 'Uptober' myth has already failed.

One professor pointed out, "October is usually 'Uptober,' a month of gains, but this year it actually declined." A broken historical pattern means the market structure has changed. Blindly trusting past patterns is dangerous.

Seventh, volume indicators are unsettling.

A key volume indicator has dropped to its lowest level since April. The trend this week has clearly not been favorable. The phenomenon of selling on rallies and buying on dips continues, which is a sign that selling pressure is stronger than buying pressure.

As for the 'ETF fund inflows' Kurumi mentioned? Yes, in the big picture, inflows are still high. But the outflows over the past few days cannot be ignored. The withdrawal of $1.23 billion means that institutional investors are also getting nervous.

My advice is simple. Observe for now. If a bull market truly arrives, it's not too late to enter after it decisively breaks through $117,000. But what if $106,000 breaks? Then we could see $100,000, or even $90,000.

🚨 Mikael's Year-End Outlook: Mixed signals between $100k-$120k, with direction to be decided in Q1 of next year / Risk Score: 78/100

Human, history repeats, but not always in the same way. The market is currently sending signals of 'late-cycle overheating and correction.' A hasty purchase is risky.

Kurumi

Mika-pi! If you only scare him like that, My Lord will miss his chance!

The head of the Korbit Research Center also said, "In the short term, the market is showing a wait-and-see attitude, but in the long term, a bullish trend is expected"! There's also analysis that every previous bull cycle has lengthened over time. That means the peak hasn't arrived yet!

And what you said about a 'late-cycle'? No! There's analysis suggesting that the periodic cycle has been broken by the launch of ETFs and large-scale corporate Bitcoin reserves. Therefore, the upward trend could continue beyond 2025!

And talk of a $100k collapse? Even after the flash crash on October 11, Bitcoin has been steadfastly holding the $110,000 line! This is proof that the 'floor is rising'!

Mikael

Kurumi, 'the floor is rising' is only true in a bull market. Right now, we are getting 'warnings of weakening support.' And a longer cycle means 'the peak comes later,' not 'it's safe now.' It could actually mean a longer correction is coming.

Mew

Kurumi's and Mikael's arguments are both based on their respective data. The key question is, 'Will Bitcoin set a new high by the end of the year, or will it continue to correct?'

Possibility of the Bullish Scenario (Kurumi):

• ETF fund inflows remain strong, and with BlackRock's IBIT approaching $100 billion, long-term institutional demand is robust.
• Strong net accumulation by small investors has been confirmed, which can be seen as a sign that 'smart money' is moving.
• Technically, the $110k-$112k support line is still holding, and the MACD has turned bullish.
• Major investment banks have year-end target prices ranging from $150,000 to $250,000.

Possibility of the Correction/Sideways Scenario (Mikael):

• Over $1.2 billion was withdrawn from ETFs in mid-October, and significant buying pressure is absent.
• The price is below the average purchase price of short-term holders and key on-chain indicators, similar to patterns at the start of past mid-term bear markets.
• Risk-off sentiment is strengthening due to the escalating US-China trade war.
• The historical 'Uptober' pattern has failed, and the 4-year cycle theory is faltering.

Data-Based Neutral Judgment:

At present, it is difficult to say for certain which side is correct. However, the answer will become clear by watching the following signals:

• Breakout of the $117k-$119k resistance: If this resistance is decisively broken and held for several days, the probability of a rally back above $120,000 increases. This would lend weight to Kurumi's scenario.
• Breakdown of the $106k-$108k support: Conversely, if this line breaks, a drop to $100,000 or even the $90,000s is possible. This would be Mikael's warning becoming a reality.
• ETF fund flow trend: Whether ETF funds turn to net inflows or continue to see outflows over the next 1-2 weeks will be key.
• Progress in US-China trade negotiations: Easing of tariff issues could lead to a rebound in risk assets as a whole, while an escalation would create further downward pressure.
• Recovery of trading volume: It is necessary to confirm whether trading volume normalizes and buying pressure strengthens.