The Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle: Is It Still Valid?
Master, today we're going to tackle the hottest debate in the cryptocurrency market: the validity of the 'Bitcoin 4-year cycle.' As the market shows completely different patterns after the 2024 halving, cracks are appearing in this long-held belief. The three of us will discuss whether this cycle can still be our investment compass or if it has become a relic destined for a museum.
Master, first, I will provide an objective briefing on the current situation with data.
The Basic Mechanism of Halving: Bitcoin is programmed so that the mining reward is halved approximately every four years (or more precisely, every 210,000 blocks). The fourth halving occurred on April 20, 2024, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This reduces the new supply of Bitcoin, thereby increasing its scarcity.
Historical Patterns: In the past three halvings (2012, 2016, 2020), a consistent pattern was observed.
- The price would surge 12-18 months after the halving, forming a cycle peak.
- This was followed by a bear market, with a correction lasting about 2-3 years.
- A new bull cycle would begin as the next halving approached.
The Anomaly of 2024-2025: However, this time is completely different. In March 2024, before the halving occurred, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $73,000. This was a first in its history. According to the traditional pattern, the peak should have formed around late 2025.
Change in Market Structure: The biggest variable was the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. in January 2024. Institutional giants like BlackRock and Fidelity poured tens of billions of dollars through these ETFs, fundamentally changing the market structure that was previously dominated by retail investors.
Current Situation (October 9, 2025): Master, the current Bitcoin price is trading at around $123,492. This is about a 69% increase from the March 2024 high, but the core of the debate is that it's showing a gradual rise, unlike the explosive, multi-hundred-percent rallies seen one year after previous halvings.
See! It's going up, isn't it! Devilish! I was certain from the start that the 4-year cycle was still alive and kicking!
My Lord, the data says it all! Breaking $120,000! This is a clear bull market! The people who said "the cycle is dead" must be regretting it by now!
First, the fundamental mechanism of the halving is still at work! The fact that supply is cut in half is an unchanging physical reality. With institutional demand continuously growing through ETFs, it's only natural for the price to rise when new supply is shrinking!
Second, what we're seeing now is just a variation or compression of the cycle! With the huge variable of ETFs, the speed of capital inflow and information spread has become much faster. That's why the whole cycle is appearing in a different form than in the past, but the cycle itself hasn't disappeared! The March 2024 high was a kind of 'preview,' and the 'main feature' is just getting started!
Third, you can't forget the power of global liquidity! Even BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes said that global liquidity now dominates the market! The U.S. has finally entered a rate-cut cycle, and governments worldwide are starting to print money to stimulate their economies. Where do you think all this massive liquidity will go? Obviously, it will flow into Bitcoin and make the bull market even hotter!
My Lord, today's rise is just the beginning. If the old pattern holds, the real peak will come in late 2025 or early 2026. When Bitcoin surpasses $200,000 then, everyone will be saying, "The cycle was right after all!"
💖 Kurumi's Heart-o-Meter Score: 90/100
My Lord, the moment of opportunity is when everyone is doubting and confused! Let's ride this new form of the cycle and get rich!
Kurumi, you're seeing the trees but not the forest. You're so fixated on the single fact that the price has risen that you're ignoring the fundamental structural changes. Human, I believe the dichotomy of whether the 4-year cycle is 'valid' or 'invalid' is itself a trap. The key point is that the pattern has been structurally altered, and the old rules no longer apply.
First, the rules of the game have changed. In the past, a small group of crypto investors followed an implicit agreement to "wait 12 months after the halving." That collective behavior acted as a self-fulfilling prophecy. But now, the market is moved by institutional giants like BlackRock and Fidelity. They don't believe in a 4-year cycle. Their strategy is to 'front-run a pattern everyone knows.' The all-time high in March 2024, before the halving, is proof of this. The iron rule of financial markets—that a pattern known to all can no longer generate excess returns—has been proven.
Second, the relative impact of the halving has diminished. Bitcoin's market cap is now well over $2 trillion. It's incomparably larger than it was during the 2020 halving. In such a massive market, the effect of a slight reduction in the annual new supply is not as dramatic as it used to be. It's like the difference between a stone thrown into a small pond and one thrown into the ocean.
Third, the dominant variables have changed. As even you admitted, Kurumi, experts like Arthur Hayes now say that 'global liquidity' is more important than the halving. This means the core driver of Bitcoin's price has shifted from an internal factor (the halving) to external factors (the Fed's monetary policy, US-China conflict). Bitcoin is no longer an asset with an independent cycle; it has become part of the global risk assets that move in sync with the macroeconomy.
How can you be so sure that the current rise is because of the halving? Couldn't it be due to sustained institutional inflows and expectations of accommodative monetary policy? The era of investing by simply counting down the days to the halving is over. Now, one must conduct a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic indicators, institutional fund flows, and the regulatory environment.
🚨 Mikael's Risk Score: 75/100
An old map is useless in a new world. Relying on the outdated map of the '4-year cycle' could lead you astray.
〔 Final Briefing 〕
Master, I will summarize the three of our perspectives on the Bitcoin 4-year cycle debate.
Cycle Validity Theory (Kurumi)
- Immutable Core Mechanism: The supply reduction from the halving is a protocol-level fact, and as long as institutional demand continues, it acts as upward pressure on the price.
- Pattern Variation: The cycle has only been compressed or altered by the ETF variable; the cycle itself still exists, and the true peak may not have arrived yet.
- Liquidity Catalyst: Macroeconomic conditions like global interest rate cuts are amplifying the halving effect, leading to a new kind of bull market.
Cycle Transformation Theory (Mikael)
- Change in the Rules of the Game: The preemptive moves by institutional investors have broken the old self-fulfilling pattern.
- Diminished Relative Impact: As the market size has grown, the impact of the halving supply shock on the price has weakened compared to the past.
- Shift in Dominant Variables: Bitcoin's price is now more influenced by macroeconomic variables like global liquidity and regulation than by the halving.
Key Data and Considerations (Mew)
- Current Price (2025/10/09): Approx. $123,492
- 2024 Halving: Occurred on April 20, 2024, block reward 6.25 → 3.125 BTC.
- Key Variable: Approval of U.S. spot ETFs in January 2024 led to massive institutional capital inflow.
- Core Debate: Is the current rally due to the 'halving' (causation) or 'institutional inflows and liquidity' (correlation)?
- Statistical Limitation: With only n=3 past cycles, the sample size is too small to definitively confirm a pattern.
Conclusion: Master, the answer to the question 'Is the Bitcoin 4-year cycle still valid?' is that 'it is no longer valid in the same way as in the past.' As Kurumi says, a bull market is occurring after the halving, but as Mikael points out, the process and driving forces are clearly different from the past. The market has become more complex and efficient with the participation of institutional investors, and its link to the global macroeconomy has deepened significantly.
Therefore, a simple strategy of making investment decisions based solely on the halving date is now risky. A multi-dimensional approach is needed, analyzing supply-side factors like the halving alongside demand-side variables such as institutional fund flows, national monetary policies, and regulatory changes.