Tesla ($TSLA): A Good Time to Invest? Analyzing Opportunities & Risks

Welcome, Master. The topic we'll be discussing today is 'Tesla'. With half of 2025 already over, can Tesla be a good investment for the second half of the year? As it's a stock with a lot of buzz, the three of us will dig deep into it.

Mew

Master, I will first brief you on the objective data. As of early July 2025, the situation for Tesla ($TSLA) can be summed up as 'a crossroads of expectation and concern'.

• Stock Price & Valuation: Tesla's stock is currently hovering in the low $300s. It saw a significant rise in June. However, its valuation remains a hot topic. The 12-month forward P/E ratio is around 62x, which is incomparably high compared to traditional car companies like Ford (8x) or GM (9x). The current P/E exceeds 165x, which is even higher than the average of the past 12 months.


• Vehicle Deliveries (Performance): This is the most concerning part. Vehicle deliveries for the second quarter of 2025 were approximately 384,000 units, a decrease of about 14% year-over-year. This marks the second consecutive quarter of negative year-over-year growth. In particular, deliveries of 'Other Models,' including the Model S/X and Cybertruck, were only about 10,000 units, and with production (410,000 units) outpacing deliveries (384,000 units), there are signs that inventory is piling up.


• Competitive Landscape: Competition in the Chinese market is becoming increasingly fierce. BYD already overtook Tesla in the first quarter of 2025 to become the world's number one in electric vehicle sales. There are also analyses showing that Tesla is losing ground to BYD and Xiaomi in EV brand preference surveys in China.


• Future Catalysts: However, what's driving market expectation lies elsewhere. Tesla has announced a Robotaxi unveiling event for this coming October. Additionally, the humanoid robot 'Optimus' is targeted for production of several thousand units within 2025, and the FSD (Full Self-Driving) software is continuously being updated.

Kurumi

Thanks for the data, Myu-tan! Master! I know there are some worrying parts if you only look at the current data! But that's like missing the forest for the trees! Mika-pi will surely nitpick about the 'declining vehicle deliveries,' but that's an old-fashioned way of thinking!

Tesla is no longer just a 'car company'! It's being reborn as an artificial intelligence robotics company! The current stock price is feeding on the dreams of the future!

• Robotaxi, a Game Changer to Transform the World: Think about the Robotaxi being unveiled in October! This isn't just a taxi. It's the birth of an App Store on wheels! An era is dawning where millions of Tesla vehicles will earn money on their own! Once this becomes a reality, a slight dip in car sales will be no problem at all! Devilish! According to CBS MoneyWatch, one Wall Street analyst even said that the Robotaxi could boost Tesla's market cap to $2 trillion by the end of 2026!


• Optimus, the Revolution of Labor: And our cute Optimus! It might seem like it's in its infancy, but Elon Musk said he'd build thousands of them this year. Imagine robots doing the dangerous and boring work in factories! This is a massive revolution that will elevate human productivity to the next level. And Tesla is at the center of that revolution!


• FSD and AI Data: While other companies are selling a few more cars, Tesla is sucking up real driving data from roads all over the world. This data is the real 'fuel' that perfects FSD and advances AI technology! It's the most powerful moat that competitors can never, ever cross!

The current stock price decline and sales decrease are just growing pains, like a caterpillar before it becomes a butterfly! A truly great transformation is ahead, and if you get scared and sell now, you'll regret it for the rest of your life!

💖 Kurumi's Heart-o-Meter Investment Score: 90/100

Isn't it more exciting because it's a dream that hasn't been realized yet? This is an adventure! You have to think of it as the cost of joining a great adventure!

Mikael

Kurumi, I can hear the sound of countless humans' money melting away at your words of 'dreams' and 'adventures.' Human, that devil's whisper is extremely dangerous. You must face reality.

First, the core business is faltering. Kurumi said Tesla is not a car company, but the majority of its current revenue comes from car sales. Yet, those sales have seen negative year-over-year growth for two consecutive quarters. This is a very serious signal. Especially in China, it's losing market share to competitors like BYD, and continuous price cuts are eroding profitability. No matter how grand the future dream is, it's useless if the ground you're standing on is collapsing.

Second, promises are just promises. Robotaxi, Optimus... haven't we been hearing these stories for years? 'Unveiling' a Robotaxi in October and 'commercializing' a service that passes regulations and actually makes money are two entirely different matters. Even a Tesla bull warned to 'keep expectations in check' for the Robotaxi event. It is an incredibly risky gamble to pull unrealized future value into the current stock price. The forward P/E of 62x is proof of how high the stakes are in this gamble.

Third, the CEO risk remains. Elon Musk is certainly a man with a genius vision. However, his unpredictable behavior and divided attention across multiple businesses are a constant source of anxiety for investors. There was also talk of boycotts due to his recent political activities. The fact that a company's fate is tied to a single person means it is structurally very vulnerable.

I believe investing in Tesla now is like investing in a flashy model home without even checking if the foundation is sound.

🚨 Mikael's Risk Score: 88/100

Now is not the time to invest in dreams, but to face the cold reality of piling inventory and declining sales. The volatility expected in the second half of the year may be difficult for a human to handle.