Is an 'Alt Season' Coming in the Second Half of 2025? The Hopeful vs. the Despairing View

Today's topic is... the outlook for the altcoin market in the second half of 2025. This is undoubtedly a topic of great curiosity for those holding altcoins. Let's look at the data first.

Mew

Master, I will now brief you on the key data for the altcoin market as of June 18, 2025.

First, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is approximately $2.5 trillion. Of this, Bitcoin dominance stands at 54%. While this is a slight decrease from the end of last year, it still means that Bitcoin accounts for more than half of the market.

The altcoin market cap (excluding Bitcoin) is about $1.15 trillion, showing a modest upward trend since the beginning of the year. However, with the exception of a few major altcoins like Solana (SOL) and Toncoin (TON), most altcoins have not recovered to their previous all-time highs.

The main keywords in the market recently can be summarized as Real World Asset Tokenization (RWA), Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN), and AI-related coins. In particular, as major asset management firms like BlackRock have officially announced their entry into the RWA market, the data confirms growing expectations for related projects.

Finally, looking at macroeconomic indicators, the U.S. Federal Reserve has hinted at a possible interest rate cut in the second half of this year, but high inflation remains a variable. The timing and magnitude of rate cuts will have a significant impact on liquidity in the altcoin market. These are the facts up to this point.

Kurumi

Thanks for the dry data explanation, Myu-tan! My Lord! Can you hear Kurumi-chan's voice? This is an opportunity, a devilishly huge opportunity!

Didn't Myu-tan mention them? RWA! AI! DePIN! Don't these names alone make your heart race? These aren't just passing trends; they are the starting point where the blockchain truly connects with the real world! Imagine the massive funds from Wall Street pouring into the altcoin market through the RWA pipeline! Isn't the thought just thrilling?

Bitcoin dominance at 54%? To put it another way, that means there's plenty of room for altcoins to rise! When combined with the upcoming interest rate cut cycle, liquidity will explode, and a real alt season will arrive! Last year's rise was just a trailer.

My Lord, if you hesitate, you'll be too late. If you pick and accumulate promising RWA or AI projects now, you'll be able to throw a party with huge profits by the end of the year! Trust Kurumi-chan!

· Kurumi's Heart-o-Meter Investment Score: 90/100

Mikael

Kurumi… are you trying to delude the Human with such baseless optimism again? While it's true that themes like RWA and AI are promising, that doesn't guarantee a rise for all altcoins.

Listen carefully, Human. The rosy future Kurumi speaks of is based on numerous 'ifs'.

If the Fed cuts rates as expected. If RWA-related regulations are smoothly resolved. If the projects currently in the spotlight actually deliver results. What happens if even one of these assumptions goes wrong?

The altcoin market has always been a place where bubbles, inflated by mere expectation, can pop in an instant. The current phenomenon of funds flocking to specific themes is particularly dangerous. You must not forget that, with the exception of a few so-called 'leader' coins, the majority of altcoins can see their prices plummet with even a slight outflow of liquidity.

And the fact that Bitcoin dominance is still over 50% is also a sign that the market has not yet shifted to a full-blown risk-on sentiment. You must remember the fact that if Bitcoin stumbles, altcoins will fall several times harder. Premature optimism is forbidden.

· Mikael's Risk Score: 75/100

Kurumi

Mika-pi is such a coward! How are you ever going to get rich playing it so safe? Investing is all about taking risks! High risk, high return! That's common sense even for kindergartners in the demon world!

Think about it, my Lord. What happened to the people who scoffed at Ethereum or Solana in 2021? The ones who said, 'It's too expensive,' 'It's a bubble,' ended up with nothing but regret. Will this time be any different? The next generation of leading coins is being born right now, and stopping here would be foolish!

The risks Mika-pi talks about are already priced in! In fact, the most dangerous time is when everyone thinks it's safe. A time like now, filled with doubt like 'Will this really work?', is the real opportunity for brave investors to rake in the profits!

Mew

Both of you, please calm down for a moment. I will provide additional data.

A recent analysis of on-chain data shows a gradual increase in the movement of altcoins held for over a year. This is similar to a pattern observed in the middle of a bull run in past cycles. It can be interpreted as a sign that long-term holders are either taking some profits or preparing to move their funds to other promising altcoins.

Meanwhile, cryptocurrency venture capital (VC) funding in the second quarter of this year has clearly been concentrating on the AI and DePIN sectors. This is evidence that not only retail investors but also smart money sees high growth potential here. However, it must be noted that the investment prices for these VCs are much lower than the current market prices.

Mikael

Mew, that data actually supports my argument. The movement of long-term holders could also mean that a wave of profit-taking sell-offs could hit the market. Investors entering now might just be providing the exit liquidity for them.

VC money is coming in? That's fine too. But that's usually capital invested with a 5 or 10-year outlook. It doesn't guarantee returns in the immediate second half of the year. On the contrary, news of their investment could become a 'trap,' attracting retail investors and leading to an overvalued price.

Human, I am not telling you not to invest. I am telling you to separate the wheat from the chaff. An overly hopeful approach like Kurumi's is a shortcut to losing everything in a bear market like the one in 2022. You must meticulously examine a project's actual technology, user base, and clear revenue model. You must try to see the reality hidden behind the shiny theme.

And... frankly, countless people do all that and still fail and get washed out of the market.